Design of the hybrid automated reliability predictor
Robert Geist, K.S. Trivedi, J.B. Dugan, Mark K. Smotherman · NASA Technical Reports Server (NASA) · 1983
The design of the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP), now under development at Duke University, is presented. The HARP approach to reliability prediction is characterized by a decomposition of the overall model into fault-occurrence and fault-handling sub-models. The fault-occurrence model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain which is solved analytically, while the fault-handling model is a Petri Net which is simulated. HARP provides automated analysis of sensitivity to uncertainties in the input parameters and in the initial state specifications. It then produces a predicted reliability band as a function of mission time, as well as estimates of the improvement (narrowing of the band) to be gained by a specified amount of reduction in uncertainty.