Variable smoothing parameter of the double exponential smoothing forecasting model and its application
Feiyan Chen, Qian Li, Junhong Liu, Jiuyong Zhang · International Conference on Advanced Mechatronic Systems · 2012
The exponential smoothing method is widely used in time series forecasting. However, the smooth parameter α in single exponential smoothing model and double exponential smoothing model is unchanged in conventional practice. This paper has improved the conventional exponential smoothing method, at the second exponential smoothing we introduce another smoothing parameter β. We model the variable smoothing parameter of the double exponential smoothing forecasting model as MSE or MAD for the optimization objective, use autocorrelation parameter T and χ2 method is superior to the conventional method.