Analogical Models/Expert Judgment
Robert T. Hughes · Encyclopedia of Software Engineering · 2002
Abstract Although expert judgment and the use of analogy have many applications in software engineering—for example, in the selection of reusable components and the identification of design patterns—the terms are most closely associated with the process of estimating software development effort. An estimate of development effort is a prediction, based on available information, of the effort needed to develop a software application. A true prediction should not itself influence actual effort as that would transform it into a performance goal. Thus managers of the software development process are interested in prediction as an intermediate step on the way to identifying reasonable performance goals for those participating in a development project. Analogy and case‐based reasoning would appear to be key methods used by expert estimators. A systematic approach to using analogy suggested by Cowderoy defined the six steps: Assessing the problem; finding the Case History; identifying the differences; quantifying the differences; analyzing the uncertainty; and communicating results. The attempts to automate these processes are discussed.