Prognostic Models in Medicine
Peter Lucas, Ameen Abu–Hanna · Methods of Information in Medicine · 2001
Introduction Prognosis (pro: before; gnoscere: to know) literary means to know beforehand or, as a noun, foreknowledge. The key concept behind prognosis is the prediction of an event before its possible occurrence. One could argue that the prediction of anything without knowing about its possible occurrence is a form of prognosis. An example of the latter is used in the evaluation of a clinician's performance on predicting the disease outcome of a patient without knowledge of the actual outcome. Either way, the essence of prognosis is that the predicted event occurs in the future relative to the information available at the time of prediction. Time is thus inherent to the concept of prognosis and distinguishes it, for example, from that of diagnosis, where the future plays a less important role. Medical prognosis is defined here as: the prediction of the future course and outcome<