A fuzzy decision making approach for analogy detection in new product forecasting
Prateek Pandey, Shishir Kumar, Sandeep Shrivastava · Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems · 2015
Abstract New product forecasting is a challenging area of research, because unlike other forecasting disciplines, where the presence of historical data makes it possible to apply several analysis tools and techniques, new products suffer from scarcity of data to perform conventional analysis. Usually, the data analysis on analogical products is the only solution left and is in practice for so many decades. However, to find a reasonable analogical counterpart for a new product is challenging. In this paper, we propose a methodology based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy process (henceforth Fuzzy AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (henceforth TOPSIS) to identify an analogical product for a given new product or an innovation. We further demonstrate the applicability of the method by taking a real life example of four consumer durable products in India.