Hypothesis-confirming information search strategies and computerized information retrieval systems
Sheila M. Jacobs · Arizona State University eBooks · 1987
A recent trend in information retrieval systems technology is the development of on-line information retrieval systems. One objective of these systems has been to attempt to enhance decision effectiveness by allowing users to preferentially seek information, thereby facilitating the reduction or elimination of information overload. These systems do not necessarily lead to more effective decision making, however. Recent research in information search strategy suggests that when users are seeking information subsequent to forming initial beliefs, they may preferentially seek information to confirm these beliefs. Therefore, decision making effectiveness may be dependent on the accuracy of the decision maker's initial hypothesis of causality. It seems that effective computer-based decision support requires an information retrieval system capable of: (a) retrieving a subset of all available information, in order to reduce information overload, and (b) supporting an information search strategy that considers all relevant information, rather than merely hypothesis-confirming information. An information retrieval system with an expert component (i.e., a knowledge-based DSS) should be able to provide these capabilities. The basic research question is: Will the use of a KBDSS, designed to search for and present both confirming and disconfirming evidence, result in enhanced decision effectiveness? Enhanced decision effectiveness is defined, in this study, as a significant change to the initial attribution of causality for a described problem. To assess the effect of information retrieval system type on decision effectiveness, a laboratory experiment was conducted. Participants were presented with brief work histories describing a job performance problem and suggesting a cause for the problem. They were required to make an initial attribution of causality for the problem, to query either a conventional on-line information retrieval system or a KBDSS for additional information, and then to make a final attribution of causality. The results of this study are not conclusive; there was neither strong confirmatory evidence nor strong disconfirmatory evidence regarding the effectiveness of the KBDSS. Further research on this type of decision aid is needed before definite recommendations can be made regarding the design of computer-based decision aids that support preferred information search strategies.